Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 2

ADO Den Haag–Groningen

1–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'GroningenT. van Bergen
30'GroningenB. Willumsson (assist: E. Vaessen)
45'GroningenD. van der Werff (assist: T. Land)
55'ADO Den HaagY. Eduardo (assist: F. de Bruin)
81'GroningenNils Eggens (assist: T. van Bergen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ADO Den Haag		Groningen
10	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	14
5	Shots inside the box	14
10	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
489	Passes	410
399	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots ADO Den Haag 10 · Groningen 17; on target 4 and 14.
ADO Den Haag kept the ball more (55%).

Unavailable players

ADO Den Haag

C. Peupionout · Knee Injury
D. Baranyout · Knee Injury
J. Hawkinsout · Hamstring Injury

Groningen

M. Jengout · Leg Injury
M. Renteout · injury
O. Zawadaout · Knock
R. Metuout · injury
S. Resinkout · Knee Injury
T. Merceraout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:10.

Referee

Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands→

4.13

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 1 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

11	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.