Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 2

Utrecht–AZ Alkmaar

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'AZ AlkmaarPeer Koopmeiners
47'AZ AlkmaarWeslley Patati (assist: K. Smit)
49'AZ AlkmaarMexx Meerdink (assist: Mateo Chávez)
62'UtrechtA. Stepanov (assist: Y. Cathline)
84'AZ AlkmaarAyoub Oufkir (assist: Mateo Chávez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Utrecht		AZ Alkmaar
8	Shots	24
2	Shots on target	9
6	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	9
1	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
372	Passes	417
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Utrecht 1.56 · AZ Alkmaar 1.37. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Utrecht 8 · AZ Alkmaar 24; on target 2 and 9.

Unavailable players

Utrecht

A. Engwandaout · Hamstring Injury
M. Jonathansout · Knee Injury
N. Ohioout · Knee Injury
O. Agougilout · injury
V. Jensenout · Knee Injury

AZ Alkmaar

A. Nataliout · not in squad
D. Kasiusout · Groin Injury
J. Clasieout · injury
J. Hornkampout · Ankle Injury
T. Parrottout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:10.

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

3.40

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “AZ Alkmaar to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Utrecht, 1.37 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,235 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Utrecht to win41.1%

Draw26.5%

AZ Alkmaar to win32.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Utrecht win or draw67.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or AZ Alkmaar win58.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Utrecht lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time41.2%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time24.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Utrecht ahead or level75.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1235 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Utrecht: at least 10Actual: 23
AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 3
AZ Alkmaar: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (60.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Utrecht score1.56

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.37

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.7%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1235 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.