Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 1

Cambuur–Excelsior

0–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Friday, 7 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'ExcelsiorI. Yegoian (assist: G. de Regt)
31'ExcelsiorN. Naujoks (assist: I. Yegoian)
42'ExcelsiorD. Garden (assist: S. Janssen)
69'ExcelsiorN. Naujoks (assist: S. Janssen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cambuur		Excelsior
11	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	9
5	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
379	Passes	430
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cambuur 1.31 · Excelsior 1.67. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Cambuur 11 · Excelsior 18; on target 2 and 9.

Unavailable players

Cambuur

D. Visserout · Knee Injury
W. Kooistraout · injury

Excelsior

K. Bosout · Shoulder Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Allard Lindhout, Netherlands→

3.70

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Excelsior to win”. Second comes “Cambuur to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Cambuur, 1.67 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,224 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cambuur to win28.7%

Draw25.9%

Excelsior to win45.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cambuur win or draw54.7%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or Excelsior win71.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

Cambuur lead at half-time19.5%

Level at half-time39.8%

Excelsior lead at half-time40.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Cambuur ahead or level59.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead80.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1224 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cambuur: at least 8Actual: 6
Excelsior: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Cambuur: at least 4Actual: 5
Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (60.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cambuur score1.31

Attack: Cambuur score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score1.67

Attack: Excelsior score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cambuur concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–210.2%2–17.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1224 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 34 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.