Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 34

Frosinone–Salernitana

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 26 April 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'FrosinoneMatías Soulé (penalty)
25'FrosinoneMarco Brescianini (assist: Emanuele Valeri)
85'FrosinoneN. Zortea (assist: Marco Brescianini)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Frosinone		Salernitana
11	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
339	Passes	471
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Frosinone 1.97 · Salernitana 0.94. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Frosinone 11 · Salernitana 17; on target 4 and 2.
Salernitana kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

F. Fourneau→

5.03

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.3%: “Frosinone to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.30 for Frosinone, 0.87 for Salernitana.
The highest double chance value is 88.9% (1X — Frosinone win or draw).
These values were computed from 709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Frosinone to win70.3%

Draw18.6%

Salernitana to win11.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Frosinone lead at half-time44.1%

Level at half-time40.3%

Salernitana lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Frosinone ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Salernitana ahead55.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Frosinone: at least 10Actual: 13
Salernitana: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Frosinone: at least 6Actual: 7
Salernitana: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Frosinone score1.97

Attack: Frosinone score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Salernitana concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Salernitana score0.94

Attack: Salernitana score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Frosinone concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.4%2–110.7%1–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.