Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 33

Salernitana–Fiorentina

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Arechi, Salerno

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

80'FiorentinaC. Kouame (assist: Luca Ranieri)
90+5'FiorentinaJ. Ikone (assist: Rolando Mandragora)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Salernitana		Fiorentina
5	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
27%	Possession	73%
220	Passes	608
126	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Salernitana 0.94 · Fiorentina 1.84. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Salernitana 5 · Fiorentina 12; on target 1 and 7.
Fiorentina kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

M. Marchetti→

4.14

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.2%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Salernitana, 1.92 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 83.4% (X2 — draw or Fiorentina win).
These values were computed from 704 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Salernitana to win16.6%

Draw23.1%

Fiorentina to win60.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Salernitana win or draw39.8%

12 — any result other than a draw76.9%

X2 — draw or Fiorentina win83.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Salernitana lead at half-time14.7%

Level at half-time40.9%

Fiorentina lead at half-time44.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Salernitana ahead or level55.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead85.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 704 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Salernitana: at least 11Actual: 13
Fiorentina: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Salernitana: at least 3Actual: 2
Fiorentina: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Salernitana score0.94

Attack: Salernitana score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.84

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Salernitana concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%1–211.0%0–210.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 704 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 69 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.