Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 4

Kifisia–Levadiakos

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kifisia		Levadiakos
10	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	4
3	Offsides	6
63%	Possession	37%
483	Passes	286
411	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kifisia 1.50 · Levadiakos 1.11. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Kifisia 10 · Levadiakos 5; on target 4 and 1.
Kifisia kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Konstantinos Tsetsilas→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Kifisia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Kifisia, 1.11 for Levadiakos.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (1X — Kifisia win or draw).
These values were computed from 837 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kifisia to win45.6%

Draw27.7%

Levadiakos to win26.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kifisia lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time43.0%

Levadiakos lead at half-time25.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Kifisia ahead or level74.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Levadiakos ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 836 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kifisia: at least 17Actual: 16
Levadiakos: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Kifisia: at least 4Actual: 9
Levadiakos: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kifisia score1.50

Attack: Kifisia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levadiakos score1.11

Attack: Levadiakos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kifisia's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.2%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.