Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 4

Olympiakos Piraeus–OFI

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 1%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'OFIK. Kodro (assist: N. Athanasiou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		OFI
20	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	4
62%	Possession	38%
613	Passes	368
548	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.75 · OFI 0.24. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 20 · OFI 13; on target 4 and 4.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 90.3%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.75 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.24 for OFI.
The highest double chance value is 98.6% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 833 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win90.3%

Draw8.3%

OFI to win1.4%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 107 of 114 predictions were correct (93.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time53.4%

Level at half-time38.2%

OFI lead at half-time8.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level91.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or OFI ahead46.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 832 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 13Actual: 12
OFI: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 8Actual: 8
OFI: at least 1Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score2.75

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.75 goals.

How many goals OFI score0.24

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 57% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.7%3–018.4%1–013.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.