Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 3

Panathinaikos–PAOK

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

15'PAOKA. Elustondo · red card
29'PanathinaikosVicente Taborda (assist: Georgios Kyriakopoulos)
38'PanathinaikosAndreas Tetteh
52'PanathinaikosAndreas Tetteh (assist: K. Kangwa)
69'PanathinaikosC. Dessers · red card
90+2'PAOKO. Ugresic (assist: J. Kenny)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panathinaikos		PAOK
25	Shots	5
11	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
71%	Possession	29%
582	Passes	231
537	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panathinaikos 1.25 · PAOK 1.28. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Panathinaikos 25 · PAOK 5; on target 11 and 2.
Panathinaikos kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

Felix Zwayer, Germany→

4.50

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “Panathinaikos to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Panathinaikos, 1.28 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 830 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panathinaikos to win34.9%

Draw28.9%

PAOK to win36.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Panathinaikos lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time43.5%

PAOK lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Panathinaikos ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or PAOK ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 829 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Panathinaikos: at least 12Actual: 19
PAOK: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Panathinaikos: at least 4Actual: 5
PAOK: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.25

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.25 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals PAOK score1.28

Attack: PAOK score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.28 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–19.3%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.