Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 32

Lazio–Salernitana

4–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Friday, 12 April 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Roma

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'LazioFelipe Anderson
14'LazioM. Vecino
16'SalernitanaL. Tchaouna (assist: G. Maggiore)
35'LazioFelipe Anderson (assist: Luis Alberto)
87'LazioGustav Isaksen (assist: N. Rovella)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lazio		Salernitana
17	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	0
3	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
644	Passes	346
571	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lazio 2.13 · Salernitana 0.66. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Lazio 17 · Salernitana 8; on target 6 and 5.
Lazio kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

L. Zufferli→

4.92

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.9%: “Lazio to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for Lazio, 0.67 for Salernitana.
The highest double chance value is 91.3% (1X — Lazio win or draw).
These values were computed from 689 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lazio to win72.9%

Draw18.4%

Salernitana to win8.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lazio win or draw91.3%

12 — any result other than a draw81.6%

X2 — draw or Salernitana win27.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.4%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

Lazio lead at half-time55.9%

Level at half-time37.7%

Salernitana lead at half-time6.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Lazio ahead or level93.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Salernitana ahead44.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 689 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lazio: at least 11Actual: 15
Salernitana: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Lazio: at least 5
Salernitana: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lazio score2.13

Attack: Lazio score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Salernitana concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Salernitana score0.66

Attack: Salernitana score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lazio's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.2%1–011.8%3–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 689 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 69 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.