Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 31

Salernitana–Sassuolo

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 5 April 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Arechi, Salerno

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'SassuoloArmand Laurienté (assist: N. Bajrami)
44'SassuoloN. Bajrami (assist: A. Pinamonti)
52'SalernitanaA. Candreva (penalty)
90+1'SalernitanaG. Maggiore (assist: A. Zanoli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Salernitana		Sassuolo
5	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
493	Passes	415
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Salernitana 1.23 · Sassuolo 1.51. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Salernitana 5 · Sassuolo 16; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

S. Sozza→

5.06

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Sassuolo to win”. Second comes “Salernitana to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Salernitana, 1.54 for Sassuolo.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 679 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Salernitana to win29.5%

Draw27.1%

Sassuolo to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Salernitana lead at half-time19.1%

Level at half-time40.9%

Sassuolo lead at half-time40.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Salernitana ahead or level59.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Sassuolo ahead80.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 679 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Salernitana: at least 10Actual: 10
Sassuolo: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Salernitana: at least 4Actual: 4
Sassuolo: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Salernitana score1.23

Attack: Salernitana score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sassuolo score1.51

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Salernitana concede 46% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.0%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.