Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 5

Lech Poznan–Jagiellonia

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 3 September 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

43'Lech PoznanP. Rodriguez (assist: J. Pereira)
45+4'JagielloniaY. Kobayashi (assist: Bernardo Vital)
87'Lech PoznanR. Gumny (assist: M. Gurgul)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lech Poznan 2.04 · Jagiellonia 1.05. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

Szymon Marciniak, Poland→

3.36

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.3%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for Lech Poznan, 1.05 for Jagiellonia.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Lech Poznan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,272 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lech Poznan to win60.3%

Draw22.3%

Jagiellonia to win17.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lech Poznan win or draw82.7%

12 — any result other than a draw77.7%

X2 — draw or Jagiellonia win39.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Lech Poznan lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time38.7%

Jagiellonia lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Lech Poznan ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Jagiellonia ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1272 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lech Poznan: at least 12
Jagiellonia: at least 11

Corners

Lech Poznan: at least 5
Jagiellonia: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 49.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lech Poznan score2.04

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Jagiellonia's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Jagiellonia score1.05

Attack: Jagiellonia score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–111.0%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.