Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 3

Pogon Szczecin–Motor Lublin

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin

Goals and red cards

17'Pogon SzczecinD. Churlinov
43'Pogon SzczecinA. Szalai (assist: L. Wahlqvist)
90'Motor LublinM. Aiko (assist: D. Gregorski)
90'Pogon SzczecinKellyn Acosta (assist: K. Grosicki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pogon Szczecin		Motor Lublin
15	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
387	Passes	486
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pogon Szczecin 1.96 · Motor Lublin 1.05. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Pogon Szczecin 15 · Motor Lublin 16; on target 6 and 4.
Motor Lublin kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Szymon Marciniak, Poland→

3.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.5%: “Pogon Szczecin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.05 for Motor Lublin.
The highest double chance value is 81.7% (1X — Pogon Szczecin win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,243 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pogon Szczecin to win58.5%

Draw23.1%

Motor Lublin to win18.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Pogon Szczecin lead at half-time43.3%

Level at half-time38.6%

Motor Lublin lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Pogon Szczecin ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Motor Lublin ahead56.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1243 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pogon Szczecin: at least 11Actual: 11
Motor Lublin: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Pogon Szczecin: at least 5Actual: 2
Motor Lublin: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pogon Szczecin score1.96

Attack: Pogon Szczecin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Motor Lublin concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Motor Lublin score1.05

Attack: Motor Lublin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pogon Szczecin's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.