Ekstraklasa · Poland · Regular Season - 2

Slask Wroclaw–Raków Częstochowa

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 August 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

60'Raków CzęstochowaMahir Emreli (assist: J. C. Silva)
86'Slask WroclawLuka Marjanac
90'Slask WroclawP. Samiec-Talar (assist: M. Mokrzycki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slask Wroclaw		Raków Częstochowa
11	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
429	Passes	438
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slask Wroclaw 1.41 · Raków Częstochowa 1.26. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Slask Wroclaw 11 · Raków Częstochowa 17; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

Szymon Marciniak, Poland→

3.75

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Slask Wroclaw to win”. Second comes “Raków Częstochowa to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Slask Wroclaw, 1.26 for Raków Częstochowa.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,238 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slask Wroclaw to win39.8%

Draw28.0%

Raków Częstochowa to win32.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Slask Wroclaw lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time43.7%

Raków Częstochowa lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Slask Wroclaw ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Raków Częstochowa ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1238 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slask Wroclaw: at least 13Actual: 15
Raków Częstochowa: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Slask Wroclaw: at least 4Actual: 4
Raków Częstochowa: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slask Wroclaw score1.41

Attack: Slask Wroclaw score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.26

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slask Wroclaw's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.5%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.