Liga I · Romania · Regular Season - 3

Universitatea Craiova–Petrolul Ploiesti

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

1'Universitatea CraiovaS. Nsimba (assist: C. Mora)
18'Universitatea CraiovaS. Nsimba (assist: Ștefan Baiaram)
48'Universitatea CraiovaȘtefan Baiaram (assist: C. Mora)
65'Universitatea CraiovaS. Elisor (assist: A. Mekvabishvili)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Universitatea Craiova		Petrolul Ploiesti
26	Shots	8
11	Shots on target	2
19	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	2
3	Offsides	4
62%	Possession	38%
578	Passes	345
502	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Universitatea Craiova 26 · Petrolul Ploiesti 8; on target 11 and 2.
Universitatea Craiova kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Marian Barbu, Romania→

3.88

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

This match's league is not one of the leagues we publish. We do not show a prediction whose accuracy we do not track on the record here.

15	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.