Liga I · Romania · Regular Season - 1

FCSB–Arges Pitesti

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 July 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

19'FCSBDaniel Bîrligea (assist: Octavian Popescu)
45'FCSBFlorin Tănase (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FCSB		Arges Pitesti
12	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
325	Passes	420
233	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots FCSB 12 · Arges Pitesti 21; on target 5 and 6.
Arges Pitesti kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Marian Barbu, Romania→

2.83

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

This match's league is not one of the leagues we publish. We do not show a prediction whose accuracy we do not track on the record here.

9	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.