Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

Ham-Kam–Molde

1–5

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'MoldeJ. Abdullai (assist: N. Ødegård)
46'Ham-KamM. Ofkir (assist: A. Andresen)
56'MoldeT. Kone-Doherty (assist: S. Granaas)
58'MoldeT. Kone-Doherty (assist: J. Abdullai)
84'MoldeT. Kone-Doherty
90'MoldeK. Lonebu (assist: E. Breivik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Molde
15	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	15
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	2
4	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
416	Passes	470
331	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.30 · Molde 1.76. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Ham-Kam 15 · Molde 18; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

M. Kellerhals→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “Ham-Kam to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Ham-Kam, 1.76 for Molde.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win26.9%

Draw25.2%

Molde to win47.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Ham-Kam lead at half-time29.3%

Level at half-time38.6%

Molde lead at half-time32.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level68.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Molde ahead70.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 11Actual: 10
Molde: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 4Actual: 6
Molde: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.30

Attack: Ham-Kam score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Molde concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Molde score1.76

Attack: Molde score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.4%2–17.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.