Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

Bodo/Glimt–Sandefjord

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Bodo/GlimtJ. Hauge (assist: O. Didrik Blomberg)
54'Bodo/GlimtA. Helmersen
58'Bodo/GlimtA. Helmersen (assist: J. Hauge)
69'SandefjordJakob Maslo Dunsby (assist: M. Sauer)
90+1'SandefjordE. Patoulidis (assist: Ervin Gigovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Sandefjord
28	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	4
21	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
10	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
715	Passes	390
652	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.78 · Sandefjord 0.59. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 28 · Sandefjord 10; on target 10 and 4.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

S. T. Sinnes→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.7%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.78 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.59 for Sandefjord.
The highest double chance value is 95.5% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,118 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win83.7%

Draw11.8%

Sandefjord to win4.5%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 501 of 593 predictions were correct (84.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time58.8%

Level at half-time32.7%

Sandefjord lead at half-time8.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level91.5%

12 — not level at half-time67.3%

X2 — level or Sandefjord ahead41.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1118 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 9Actual: 9
Sandefjord: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 7Actual: 10
Sandefjord: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.78

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sandefjord's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sandefjord score0.59

Attack: Sandefjord score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.6%3–012.8%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.