Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

Viking–Kristiansund BK

8–1

HT 5–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lyse Arena, Stavanger

Goals and red cards

4'VikingP. Christiansen
6'VikingH. Heggheim (assist: P. Christiansen)
20'VikingK. Haugen (assist: E. Botheim)
29'VikingE. Botheim (assist: Z. Tripić)
45+1'VikingE. Botheim (assist: Z. Tripić)
45+4'Kristiansund BKLeander Alvheim (assist: Z. Bytyqi)
58'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Viking		Kristiansund BK
28	Shots	12
13	Shots on target	2
22	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
570	Passes	374
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viking 2.44 · Kristiansund BK 0.69. On the pitch: 8-1.
Shots Viking 28 · Kristiansund BK 12; on target 13 and 2.
Viking kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

E. Eskas→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.9%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.44 for Viking, 0.69 for Kristiansund BK.
The highest double chance value is 92.7% (1X — Viking win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,113 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viking to win76.9%

Draw15.8%

Kristiansund BK to win7.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

82'VikingN. Fuglestad (assist: R. Postema)

90+1'VikingS. Kvia-Egeskog (assist: H. Bjørdal)

14	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Viking win or draw92.7%

12 — any result other than a draw84.2%

X2 — draw or Kristiansund BK win23.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.8%).

First half

Actual: 5–1

Viking lead at half-time62.0%

Level at half-time31.2%

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time6.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Viking ahead or level93.2%

12 — not level at half-time68.8%

X2 — level or Kristiansund BK ahead38.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1113 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Viking: at least 11Actual: 14
Kristiansund BK: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Viking: at least 7Actual: 7
Kristiansund BK: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viking score2.44

Attack: Viking score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kristiansund BK score0.69

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viking concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.4%3–011.0%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1113 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 108 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.