Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

Lillestrom–Valerenga

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

25'LillestromRuben Gabrielsen (assist: Frederik Elkær)
90+6'LillestromT. Olsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lillestrom		Valerenga
7	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
395	Passes	386
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lillestrom 2.09 · Valerenga 1.25. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Lillestrom 7 · Valerenga 17; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

R. Saggi→

4.24

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.7%: “Lillestrom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for Lillestrom, 1.25 for Valerenga.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Lillestrom win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lillestrom to win56.7%

Draw22.4%

Valerenga to win20.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Lillestrom win or draw79.1%

12 — any result other than a draw77.6%

X2 — draw or Valerenga win43.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lillestrom lead at half-time38.7%

Level at half-time36.9%

Valerenga lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Lillestrom ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.1%

X2 — level or Valerenga ahead61.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lillestrom: at least 10Actual: 14
Valerenga: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Lillestrom: at least 5Actual: 6
Valerenga: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lillestrom score2.09

Attack: Lillestrom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valerenga concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valerenga score1.25

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lillestrom's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%1–110.4%2–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.