Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 20

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Valerenga

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Sarpsborg 08 FFC. Niyukuri (assist: V. Halvorsen)
80'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Sørli
83'ValerengaP. Strand (assist: Ole Christian Saeter)
90+2'ValerengaG. Rajkovic (assist: Aaron Kiil Olsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Valerenga
19	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	5
16	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	8
0	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
417	Passes	614
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.09 · Valerenga 1.29. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 19 · Valerenga 12; on target 8 and 5.
Valerenga kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Marius Grotta, Norway→

3.43

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.29 for Valerenga.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,108 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win55.7%

Draw22.5%

Valerenga to win21.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time49.1%

Level at half-time33.2%

Valerenga lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time66.8%

X2 — level or Valerenga ahead50.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1108 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 9
Valerenga: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 5Actual: 7
Valerenga: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score2.09

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valerenga concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valerenga score1.29

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–110.3%2–07.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.