Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 20

Kristiansund BK–Tromso

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Kristiansund BKL. Alvheim (assist: M. Elvius)
77'Kristiansund BKL. Alvheim (assist: W. Igor)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		Tromso
9	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
382	Passes	527
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 1.15 · Tromso 1.63. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Kristiansund BK 9 · Tromso 8; on target 2 and 3.
Tromso kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Mohammad Usman Aslam, Norway→

3.63

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Tromso to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Kristiansund BK, 1.63 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (X2 — draw or Tromso win).
These values were computed from 1,110 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win25.5%

Draw26.4%

Tromso to win48.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	23

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time17.4%

Level at half-time42.4%

Tromso lead at half-time40.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level59.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Tromso ahead82.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1110 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 10Actual: 13
Tromso: at least 11Actual: 23

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 4
Tromso: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.15

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score1.63

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.4%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.