Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 20

Brann–Lillestrom

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brann Stadion, Bergen

Goals and red cards

6'LillestromVá
22'LillestromF. Gulbrandsen
89'BrannB. Finne

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brann		Lillestrom
24	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
12	Corners	0
2	Offsides	1
73%	Possession	27%
679	Passes	267
577	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brann 1.95 · Lillestrom 1.18. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Brann 24 · Lillestrom 8; on target 3 and 4.
Brann kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

E. Eskas→

3.82

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.3%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Brann, 1.18 for Lillestrom.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (1X — Brann win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,107 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brann to win55.3%

Draw23.5%

Lillestrom to win21.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Brann win or draw78.8%

12 — any result other than a draw76.5%

X2 — draw or Lillestrom win44.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Brann lead at half-time50.0%

Level at half-time36.1%

Lillestrom lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Brann ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time63.9%

X2 — level or Lillestrom ahead50.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1107 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brann: at least 12Actual: 11
Lillestrom: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Brann: at least 5
Lillestrom: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brann score1.95

Attack: Brann score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Lillestrom's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lillestrom score1.18

Attack: Lillestrom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–110.8%2–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1107 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 108 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.