Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 20

Sandefjord–Viking

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sandefjord Arena, Sandefjord

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'VikingJ. Daland · red card
60'SandefjordT. Børkeeiet (assist: F. Apetorgbor)
90+4'VikingH. Bjørdal (assist: Z. Tripić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sandefjord		Viking
12	Shots	18
1	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	15
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
450	Passes	371
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sandefjord 1.16 · Viking 1.77. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sandefjord 12 · Viking 18; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

S. Kringstad→

2.97

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Sandefjord, 1.77 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (X2 — draw or Viking win).
These values were computed from 1,105 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sandefjord to win23.6%

Draw25.1%

Viking to win51.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	17

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sandefjord lead at half-time21.3%

Level at half-time38.9%

Viking lead at half-time39.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sandefjord ahead or level60.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Viking ahead78.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1105 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sandefjord: at least 12Actual: 18
Viking: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Sandefjord: at least 4Actual: 7
Viking: at least 6Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sandefjord score1.16

Attack: Sandefjord score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viking concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score1.77

Attack: Viking score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Sandefjord's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.7%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.