Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 20

Aalesund–Start

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'AalesundE. Hagen
24'AalesundMathias Christensen (assist: S. Kartum)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aalesund		Start
24	Shots	24
12	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	10
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
449	Passes	522
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aalesund 1.76 · Start 1.59. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Aalesund 24 · Start 24; on target 12 and 6.

Referee

J. Haugen→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Aalesund to win”. Second comes “Start to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Aalesund, 1.59 for Start.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,103 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aalesund to win41.4%

Draw24.6%

Start to win34.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 816 of 1,253 predictions were correct (65.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Aalesund win or draw66.0%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Start win58.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Aalesund lead at half-time46.9%

Level at half-time34.4%

Start lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Aalesund ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time65.6%

X2 — level or Start ahead53.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1103 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aalesund: at least 11Actual: 9
Start: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Aalesund: at least 5Actual: 7
Start: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,017 of 1,454 predictions were correct (69.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aalesund score1.76

Attack: Aalesund score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Start's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Start score1.59

Attack: Start score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aalesund concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–19.4%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1103 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 18 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.