Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 19

Lillestrom–Fredrikstad

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'FredrikstadS. Owusu (assist: S. Sorlokk)
18'FredrikstadM. Nilsson (penalty)
37'LillestromF. Gulbrandsen (penalty)
65'FredrikstadB. Faraas (assist: H. Skogvold)
79'FredrikstadB. Faraas (assist: G. Wesseh)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lillestrom		Fredrikstad
17	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	9
11	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	3
5	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
518	Passes	459
419	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lillestrom 1.86 · Fredrikstad 0.98. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Lillestrom 17 · Fredrikstad 13; on target 5 and 9.

Referee

Tore Hansen, Norway→

3.59

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.0%: “Lillestrom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Lillestrom, 0.98 for Fredrikstad.
The highest double chance value is 81.9% (1X — Lillestrom win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,102 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lillestrom to win58.0%

Draw23.9%

Fredrikstad to win18.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Lillestrom lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time43.2%

Fredrikstad lead at half-time27.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Lillestrom ahead or level72.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Fredrikstad ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1102 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lillestrom: at least 10Actual: 10
Fredrikstad: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Lillestrom: at least 5Actual: 10
Fredrikstad: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lillestrom score1.86

Attack: Lillestrom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fredrikstad score0.98

Attack: Fredrikstad score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lillestrom concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–111.0%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.