Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 19

Ham-Kam–Kristiansund BK

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'Kristiansund BKS. Svendsen (assist: A. Rønning)
51'Ham-KamBlerton Isufi (assist: P. Metcalfe)
62'Kristiansund BKLeander Alvheim (assist: Z. Bytyqi)
73'Ham-KamD. Al Saed (assist: M. Johnsgård)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Kristiansund BK
11	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
452	Passes	321
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.81 · Kristiansund BK 1.07. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Ham-Kam 11 · Kristiansund BK 18; on target 6 and 5.
Ham-Kam kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

S. Sletner→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “Ham-Kam to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for Ham-Kam, 1.07 for Kristiansund BK.
The highest double chance value is 79.3% (1X — Ham-Kam win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,096 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win54.6%

Draw24.7%

Kristiansund BK to win20.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ham-Kam lead at half-time43.4%

Level at half-time40.1%

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Kristiansund BK ahead56.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1096 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 11Actual: 17
Kristiansund BK: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 5Actual: 9
Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.81

Attack: Ham-Kam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.07

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.9%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.