Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 18

Molde–Tromso

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aker Stadion, Molde

Goals and red cards

41'MoldeE. Hestad (penalty)
53'TromsoH. Larsen (assist: T. Nyhammer)
55'MoldeO. Spiten-Nysaeter (assist: J. Abdullai)
90'MoldeT. Kone-Doherty
90'TromsoIeltsin Camoes (assist: S. Innvaer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Molde		Tromso
14	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
608	Passes	505
520	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Molde 1.74 · Tromso 1.30. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Molde 14 · Tromso 8; on target 5 and 3.
Molde kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Espen Eskas, Norway→

2.94

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “Tromso to win” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Molde, 1.30 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,091 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Molde to win47.5%

Draw25.3%

Tromso to win27.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Molde lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time40.1%

Tromso lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Molde ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Tromso ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1091 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Molde: at least 10Actual: 17
Tromso: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Molde: at least 5Actual: 3
Tromso: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Molde score1.74

Attack: Molde score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score1.30

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Molde's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.4%1–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.