Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 18

KFUM Oslo–Lillestrom

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: KFUM Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.1% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'LillestromVá (assist: G. Nyheim)
83'KFUM OsloB. Kristensen (assist: I. Skovsgaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KFUM Oslo		Lillestrom
9	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
33%	Possession	67%
328	Passes	672
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KFUM Oslo 1.34 · Lillestrom 1.30. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots KFUM Oslo 9 · Lillestrom 14; on target 3 and 4.
Lillestrom kept the ball more (67%).

Unavailable players

KFUM Oslo

A. Aleesamiout · Groin Injury
E. Odegaardout · injury
F. Berglieout · Muscle Injury
M. Grodemout · injury
R. Raschout · injury
T. Sorasout · Muscle Injury

Lillestrom

C. Jebaraout · injury
E. B. Garnasout · injury
T. Olsenout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Marius Grotta, Norway→

3.41

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “KFUM Oslo to win”. Second comes “Lillestrom to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for KFUM Oslo, 1.30 for Lillestrom.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,089 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KFUM Oslo to win36.9%

Draw28.2%

Lillestrom to win34.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — KFUM Oslo win or draw65.2%

12 — any result other than a draw71.8%

X2 — draw or Lillestrom win63.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time40.8%

Level at half-time39.8%

Lillestrom lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — KFUM Oslo ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Lillestrom ahead59.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1089 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KFUM Oslo: at least 13Actual: 12
Lillestrom: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

KFUM Oslo: at least 4Actual: 3
Lillestrom: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (60.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KFUM Oslo score1.34

Attack: KFUM Oslo score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lillestrom's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lillestrom score1.30

Attack: Lillestrom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.1%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1089 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 76 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.