Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 18

Rosenborg–Viking

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 14 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'RosenborgE. Ceïde (assist: Amin Chiakha)
81'VikingP. Christiansen (assist: Z. Tripić)
90'RosenborgAmin Chiakha (assist: M. Bomholt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rosenborg		Viking
17	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
483	Passes	398
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rosenborg 1.41 · Viking 1.62. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Rosenborg 17 · Viking 6; on target 8 and 1.
Rosenborg kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Rohit Saggi, Norway→

3.22

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “Rosenborg to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Rosenborg, 1.62 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rosenborg to win32.3%

Draw26.0%

Viking to win41.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Rosenborg lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time37.2%

Viking lead at half-time40.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Rosenborg ahead or level59.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Viking ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1088 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rosenborg: at least 11Actual: 16
Viking: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Rosenborg: at least 5Actual: 9
Viking: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rosenborg score1.41

Attack: Rosenborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viking concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score1.62

Attack: Viking score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Rosenborg's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–29.8%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.