Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 17

Kristiansund BK–Molde

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 August 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Kristiansund BKS. Kilen (assist: S. Svendsen)
76'Kristiansund BKLeander Alvheim
90'MoldeT. Kone-Doherty (assist: V. Bender)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		Molde
10	Shots	28
2	Shots on target	10
4	Shots inside the box	22
9	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	12
2	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
279	Passes	589
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 1.15 · Molde 1.76. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Kristiansund BK 10 · Molde 28; on target 2 and 10.
Molde kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Svein Tore Sinnes, Norway→

3.23

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Kristiansund BK, 1.76 for Molde.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (X2 — draw or Molde win).
These values were computed from 1,087 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win23.3%

Draw25.2%

Molde to win51.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time18.9%

Level at half-time39.2%

Molde lead at half-time41.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level58.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Molde ahead81.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1087 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 11Actual: 11
Molde: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 1
Molde: at least 5Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.15

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Molde's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Molde score1.76

Attack: Molde score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–210.7%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.