Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 17

Ham-Kam–Aalesund

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'AalesundE. Osenbroch (assist: M. Christensen)
55'Ham-KamM. Gjone (assist: P. Metcalfe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Aalesund
12	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
493	Passes	342
411	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 2.09 · Aalesund 1.28. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Ham-Kam 12 · Aalesund 10; on target 6 and 2.
Ham-Kam kept the ball more (59%).

Unavailable players

Ham-Kam

H. Opsahlout · injury
N. Alexanderssonout · injury

Aalesund

A. Kjelsenout · Thigh Injury
J. Seehusenout · injury
P. Ngongoout · Surgery

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Ola Hobber Nilsen, Norway→

3.24

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Ham-Kam to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for Ham-Kam, 1.28 for Aalesund.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (1X — Ham-Kam win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,086 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win56.0%

Draw22.5%

Aalesund to win21.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Ham-Kam lead at half-time47.1%

Level at half-time36.3%

Aalesund lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Aalesund ahead52.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1086 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 10Actual: 10
Aalesund: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 5Actual: 8
Aalesund: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score2.09

Attack: Ham-Kam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aalesund concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aalesund score1.28

Attack: Aalesund score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–110.3%2–07.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.