Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 16

Bodo/Glimt–Lillestrom

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 31 July 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Bodo/GlimtO. Didrik Blomberg (penalty)
25'Bodo/GlimtS. Fet
63'Bodo/GlimtJ. Hauge (assist: S. Auklend)
77'Bodo/GlimtMarkus Karlsbakk (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Lillestrom
12	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
613	Passes	449
545	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.31 · Lillestrom 0.80. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 12 · Lillestrom 6; on target 7 and 1.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (58%).

Unavailable players

Bodo/Glimt

A. Mikkelsenout · Groin Injury
D. Bassiout · Hamstring Injury
H. Evjenout · Knee Injury
I. Sjongout · injury
U. Saltnesout · Groin Injury

Lillestrom

C. Jebaraout · injury
E. B. Garnasout · injury
E. Kitolanoout · Broken Leg

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Mohammad Usman Aslam, Norway→

3.76

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.1%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.31 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.80 for Lillestrom.
The highest double chance value is 90.1% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,074 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win72.1%

Draw18.0%

Lillestrom to win9.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,009 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw90.1%

12 — any result other than a draw82.0%

X2 — draw or Lillestrom win27.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time59.2%

Level at half-time32.6%

Lillestrom lead at half-time8.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level91.8%

12 — not level at half-time67.4%

X2 — level or Lillestrom ahead40.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1074 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 10Actual: 11
Lillestrom: at least 9Actual: 16

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 6Actual: 10
Lillestrom: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.31

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lillestrom concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.31 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Lillestrom score0.80

Attack: Lillestrom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%2–110.5%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1074 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 104 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.