Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 15

KFUM Oslo–Molde

2–4

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: KFUM Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.2% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'KFUM OsloR. E. Vinge (assist: Brage Skaret)
40'MoldeD. Daga
58'MoldeE. Breivik (assist: S. Granaas)
60'KFUM OsloB. Njie
85'MoldeM. Linnes (assist: E. Breivik)
90'MoldeS. Kabini (assist: T. Kone-Doherty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KFUM Oslo		Molde
8	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	9
4	Shots inside the box	15
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	9
2	Offsides	4
35%	Possession	65%
280	Passes	544
186	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KFUM Oslo 1.38 · Molde 1.29. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots KFUM Oslo 8 · Molde 19; on target 4 and 9.
Molde kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Sivert Amland, Norway→

3.10

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “KFUM Oslo to win”. Second comes “Molde to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for KFUM Oslo, 1.29 for Molde.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,068 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KFUM Oslo to win38.1%

Draw28.1%

Molde to win33.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time39.1%

Molde lead at half-time34.0%

First-half double chance

1X — KFUM Oslo ahead or level66.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Molde ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1068 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KFUM Oslo: at least 11Actual: 8
Molde: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

KFUM Oslo: at least 4Actual: 3
Molde: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KFUM Oslo score1.38

Attack: KFUM Oslo score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Molde's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Molde score1.29

Attack: Molde score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.3%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.