Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 15

Kristiansund BK–Start

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 July 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Kristiansund BKS. Kilen (assist: A. Munksgaard)
25'StartE. Segberg (assist: E. Schulze)
73'Kristiansund BKJulius Mar Juliusson · red card
90'StartT. Strannegard (assist: H. Lorentzen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		Start
7	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	14
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
333	Passes	424
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 1.51 · Start 1.27. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Kristiansund BK 7 · Start 22; on target 2 and 5.
Start kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Rohit Saggi, Norway→

3.10

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Kristiansund BK to win”. Second comes “Start to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Kristiansund BK, 1.27 for Start.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,066 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win42.2%

Draw27.2%

Start to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time42.5%

Start lead at half-time34.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level65.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Start ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1066 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 10Actual: 11
Start: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 3
Start: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.51

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Start's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Start score1.27

Attack: Start score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.9%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.