Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 14

Ham-Kam–Tromso

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 July 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.5% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'TromsoH. Larsen (assist: T. Nyhammer)
47'TromsoJ. Hjerto-Dahl (assist: A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd)
52'TromsoR. Jenssen (assist: H. Larsen)
58'Ham-KamM. Niang (assist: D. Benjamin)
90'TromsoIeltsin Camoes (assist: A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Tromso
6	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
387	Passes	659
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.47 · Tromso 1.46. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Ham-Kam 6 · Tromso 22; on target 2 and 7.
Tromso kept the ball more (63%).

Unavailable players

Ham-Kam

N. Alexanderssonout · injury

Tromso

V. Ekblomout · Groin Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Mischa Kellerhals, Norway→

2.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Ham-Kam to win”. Second comes “Tromso to win” at 36.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Ham-Kam, 1.46 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,058 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win36.9%

Draw26.7%

Tromso to win36.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ham-Kam win or draw63.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Tromso win63.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Ham-Kam lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time40.9%

Tromso lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Tromso ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1058 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 10Actual: 11
Tromso: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 4Actual: 1
Tromso: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (60.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.47

Attack: Ham-Kam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score1.46

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1058 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 131 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.