Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 14

Bodo/Glimt–Fredrikstad

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 July 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Fredrikstad
20	Shots	2
5	Shots on target	0
15	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
12	Corners	0
1	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
766	Passes	397
683	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.96 · Fredrikstad 0.57. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 20 · Fredrikstad 2; on target 5 and 0.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Kristoffer Hagenes, Norway→

4.80

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.3%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.96 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.57 for Fredrikstad.
The highest double chance value is 96.5% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,057 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win86.3%

Draw10.1%

Fredrikstad to win3.5%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 269 of 310 predictions were correct (86.8%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 838 of 1,955 predictions were correct (42.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw96.5%

12 — any result other than a draw89.9%

X2 — draw or Fredrikstad win13.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (10.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time61.9%

Level at half-time30.7%

Fredrikstad lead at half-time7.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level92.6%

12 — not level at half-time69.3%

X2 — level or Fredrikstad ahead38.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1057 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 9Actual: 7
Fredrikstad: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 6
Fredrikstad: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals69.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,017 of 1,454 predictions were correct (69.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.96

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 66% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fredrikstad score0.57

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–013.3%2–013.2%4–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1057 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.