Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 14

Valerenga–Aalesund

6–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 16 July 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Intility Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'ValerengaLucas Haren (assist: H. Bjørdal)
42'ValerengaLucas Haren (assist: F. Thorvaldsen)
45'ValerengaF. Thorvaldsen (assist: M. Grundetjern)
53'ValerengaF. Thorvaldsen (assist: H. Bjørdal)
74'AalesundE. Osenbroch
83'ValerengaM. Ofkir (assist: H. Bjørdal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valerenga		Aalesund
22	Shots	18
10	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
405	Passes	466
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valerenga 2.06 · Aalesund 1.21. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots Valerenga 22 · Aalesund 18; on target 10 and 6.

Referee

Daniel Higraff, Norway→

3.93

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Valerenga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for Valerenga, 1.21 for Aalesund.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (1X — Valerenga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,056 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valerenga to win56.9%

Draw22.6%

Aalesund to win20.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

89'ValerengaM. Ofkir (assist: K. Finnsson)

7	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,347 of 3,894 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Valerenga win or draw79.5%

12 — any result other than a draw77.4%

X2 — draw or Aalesund win43.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.6%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

Valerenga lead at half-time37.0%

Level at half-time38.4%

Aalesund lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Valerenga ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Aalesund ahead63.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1056 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valerenga: at least 10Actual: 7
Aalesund: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

Valerenga: at least 7Actual: 8
Aalesund: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valerenga score2.06

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aalesund concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aalesund score1.21

Attack: Aalesund score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valerenga concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%1–110.6%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1056 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.