Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 11

Brann–Sarpsborg 08 FF

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 29 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brann Stadion, Bergen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'BrannR. Holten (assist: J. Soltvedt)
41'Sarpsborg 08 FFV. E. Halvorsen (assist: S. Sørli)
45'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Sørli (assist: C. Niyukuri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brann		Sarpsborg 08 FF
10	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
69%	Possession	31%
588	Passes	259
485	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brann 2.40 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.06. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Brann 10 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 10; on target 4 and 4.
Brann kept the ball more (69%).

Unavailable players

Brann

D. De Roeveout · injury
E. Gudmundssonout · Knee Injury
J. Sorensenout · Ankle Injury
M. Dyngelandout · Muscle Injury
N. Boakyeout · Knee Injury
N. Castroout · Achilles Tendon Injury
S. Magnussonout · Knee Injury
S. Opsahlout · Foot Injury
T. Pedersenout · Elbow Injury

Sarpsborg 08 FF

A. Sherout · International duty
F. Carstensenout · injury
J. Bergetout · injury
M. Opokuout · Ankle Injury
P. Reinhardsen

Referee

Stian Rovig Sletner, Norway→

3.18

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.5%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.40 for Brann, 1.06 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
The highest double chance value is 86.4% (1X — Brann win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,041 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brann to win67.5%

Draw18.9%

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win13.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

S. Rostedout · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Brann win or draw86.4%

12 — any result other than a draw81.1%

X2 — draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF win32.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Brann lead at half-time52.5%

Level at half-time33.2%

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Brann ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time66.8%

X2 — level or Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead47.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1041 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brann: at least 11Actual: 6
Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Brann: at least 6Actual: 8
Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brann score2.40

Attack: Brann score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.06

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%2–09.2%1–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1041 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 101 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.