Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 10

Ham-Kam–Lillestrom

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 25 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.4% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Ham-KamA. Potur
83'Ham-KamA. Potur (assist: M. Gjone)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Lillestrom
12	Shots	18
9	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	9
0	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
370	Passes	554
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.44 · Lillestrom 1.45. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Ham-Kam 12 · Lillestrom 18; on target 9 and 4.
Lillestrom kept the ball more (60%).

Unavailable players

Ham-Kam

A. Ekerothout · Leg Injury
L. Maresout · Groin Injury

Lillestrom

E. B. Garnasout · red-card suspension
E. Kitolanoout · Broken Leg
H. Woxenout · red-card suspension
T. Olsenout · Leg Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Marius Grotta, Norway→

3.61

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.8%: “Lillestrom to win”. Second comes “Ham-Kam to win” at 36.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Ham-Kam, 1.45 for Lillestrom.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win36.4%

Draw26.9%

Lillestrom to win36.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ham-Kam lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time40.0%

Lillestrom lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Lillestrom ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1036 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 12Actual: 12
Lillestrom: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 4Actual: 4
Lillestrom: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.44

Attack: Ham-Kam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lillestrom concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lillestrom score1.45

Attack: Lillestrom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–29.2%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.