Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 10

Tromso–Aalesund

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 25 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Romssa Arena, Tromso

Goals and red cards

2'TromsoS. Innvaer (assist: J. Hjerto-Dahl)
57'AalesundM. Christensen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tromso		Aalesund
16	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	9
2	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
591	Passes	342
505	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tromso 2.37 · Aalesund 0.87. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Tromso 16 · Aalesund 15; on target 6 and 3.
Tromso kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Espen Eskas, Norway→

2.94

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.4%: “Tromso to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.37 for Tromso, 0.87 for Aalesund.
The highest double chance value is 89.4% (1X — Tromso win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tromso to win71.4%

Draw18.0%

Aalesund to win10.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Tromso lead at half-time39.9%

Level at half-time40.9%

Aalesund lead at half-time19.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Tromso ahead or level80.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Aalesund ahead60.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1036 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tromso: at least 10Actual: 9
Aalesund: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Tromso: at least 6Actual: 6
Aalesund: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tromso score2.37

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aalesund concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aalesund score0.87

Attack: Aalesund score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.3%2–110.5%3–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.