Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 10

Bodo/Glimt–Brann

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Bodo/GlimtO. Didrik Blomberg (assist: K. Hogh)
45'Bodo/GlimtH. Evjen (assist: F. Sjøvold)
56'Bodo/GlimtH. Evjen (penalty)
90'BrannS. Auklend (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Brann
14	Shots	4
8	Shots on target	0
12	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
605	Passes	357
512	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.50 · Brann 1.00. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 14 · Brann 4; on target 8 and 0.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (63%).

Unavailable players

Brann

D. De Roeveout · injury
E. Gudmundssonout · Knee Injury
J. Sorensenout · Ankle Injury
M. Dyngelandout · Muscle Injury
N. Boakyeout · Knee Injury
N. Castroout · Achilles Tendon Injury
S. Magnussonout · Knee Injury
S. Opsahlout · Foot Injury
T. Pedersenout · Elbow Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Christian Moen, Norway→

3.12

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.7%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.50 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.00 for Brann.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,033 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win70.7%

Draw17.6%

Brann to win11.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw88.3%

12 — any result other than a draw82.4%

X2 — draw or Brann win29.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time33.6%

Brann lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time66.4%

X2 — level or Brann ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1033 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 9Actual: 9
Brann: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 6Actual: 6
Brann: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals69.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.50

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brann score1.00

Attack: Brann score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.4%2–09.5%3–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1033 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 100 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.