Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 9

Bodo/Glimt–Tromso

5–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Bodo/GlimtH. Evjen
45+1'TromsoA. Thongla-Iad Warneryd · red card
67'Bodo/GlimtS. Fet
68'Bodo/GlimtJ. Hauge (assist: K. Hogh)
79'Bodo/GlimtK. Hogh
88'Bodo/GlimtK. Hogh (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Tromso
19	Shots	2
10	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
70%	Possession	30%
736	Passes	320
663	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.18 · Tromso 0.95. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 19 · Tromso 2; on target 10 and 2.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (70%).

Unavailable players

Bodo/Glimt

M. Riisnaesout · illness
U. Saltnesout · Groin Injury

Tromso

J. Grundtout · Foot Injury
V. Ekblomout · Groin Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Tore Hansen, Norway→

3.64

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.7%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.95 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 86.2% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,028 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win65.7%

Draw20.5%

Tromso to win13.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time43.0%

Level at half-time38.5%

Tromso lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Tromso ahead57.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1028 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 12
Tromso: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 6Actual: 4
Tromso: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.18

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.18 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Tromso score0.95

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.6%1–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.