Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 9

Lillestrom–Sandefjord

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

12'LillestromL. Ranger
49'SandefjordN. Möller
84'LillestromG. Nyheim
87'SandefjordZinedin Smajlović · red card
90'LillestromL. Alperud (assist: Vá)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lillestrom		Sandefjord
14	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
505	Passes	453
410	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lillestrom 1.79 · Sandefjord 1.01. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Lillestrom 14 · Sandefjord 12; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Espen Eskas, Norway→

2.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.3%: “Lillestrom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Lillestrom, 1.01 for Sandefjord.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (1X — Lillestrom win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,023 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lillestrom to win55.3%

Draw24.8%

Sandefjord to win19.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lillestrom lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time40.3%

Sandefjord lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Lillestrom ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Sandefjord ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1023 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lillestrom: at least 9Actual: 13
Sandefjord: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Lillestrom: at least 6Actual: 6
Sandefjord: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lillestrom score1.79

Attack: Lillestrom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sandefjord's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sandefjord score1.01

Attack: Sandefjord score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lillestrom concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.9%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.