Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 8

Ham-Kam–Valerenga

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Ham-KamH. Udahl

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Valerenga
6	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
350	Passes	621
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.85 · Valerenga 1.25. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Ham-Kam 6 · Valerenga 18; on target 3 and 3.
Valerenga kept the ball more (64%).

Unavailable players

Ham-Kam

L. Maresout · Groin Injury

Valerenga

M. Ofkirout · Knee Injury
O. Saeterout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Svein Tore Sinnes, Norway→

3.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Ham-Kam to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Ham-Kam, 1.25 for Valerenga.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Ham-Kam win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,016 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win51.1%

Draw24.5%

Valerenga to win24.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ham-Kam lead at half-time37.2%

Level at half-time39.9%

Valerenga lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Valerenga ahead62.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1016 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 11Actual: 10
Valerenga: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 5Actual: 1
Valerenga: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.85

Attack: Ham-Kam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valerenga's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valerenga score1.25

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.6%2–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.