Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 7

Bodo/Glimt–Molde

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 4 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'MoldeF. Gulbrandsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Molde
25	Shots	4
8	Shots on target	3
20	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
11	Corners	1
3	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
632	Passes	427
553	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.36 · Molde 0.96. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 25 · Molde 4; on target 8 and 3.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (60%).

Unavailable players

Bodo/Glimt

U. Saltnesout · Groin Injury

Molde

C. Oyvannout · injury
C. Zady Seryout · injury
D. Dagaout · injury
F. Dahlout · Knee Injury
I. Amundsenout · injury
M. Kikkenborgout · Achilles Tendon Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Rohit Saggi, Norway→

3.15

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.0%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.96 for Molde.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,015 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win69.0%

Draw18.7%

Molde to win12.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time59.5%

Level at half-time30.7%

Molde lead at half-time9.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level90.2%

12 — not level at half-time69.3%

X2 — level or Molde ahead40.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1015 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 9Actual: 10
Molde: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 5Actual: 11
Molde: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.36

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Molde's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Molde score0.96

Attack: Molde score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%2–010.2%1–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.