Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 7

Brann–Fredrikstad

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brann Stadion, Bergen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'BrannK. M. Ingason (assist: U. Mathisen)
69'BrannJ. Soltvedt (assist: K. M. Ingason)
90'BrannB. Finne (penalty)
90'FredrikstadUlrik Fredriksen (assist: D. Eid)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brann		Fredrikstad
16	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
514	Passes	330
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brann 2.33 · Fredrikstad 0.91. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Brann 16 · Fredrikstad 7; on target 4 and 3.
Brann kept the ball more (61%).

Unavailable players

Brann

E. Gudmundssonout · Knee Injury
M. Dyngelandout · Muscle Injury
N. Boakyeout · Knee Injury
N. Castroout · Achilles Tendon Injury
S. Magnussonout · Knee Injury
S. Opsahlout · Foot Injury

Fredrikstad

J. Nunezout · Leg Injury
S. Kvileout · Knee Injury
S. Owusuout · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Svein Tore Sinnes, Norway→

3.24

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.7%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.33 for Brann, 0.91 for Fredrikstad.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — Brann win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,009 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brann to win69.7%

Draw18.7%

Fredrikstad to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Brann win or draw88.4%

12 — any result other than a draw81.3%

X2 — draw or Fredrikstad win30.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Brann lead at half-time50.0%

Level at half-time35.6%

Fredrikstad lead at half-time14.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Brann ahead or level85.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or Fredrikstad ahead50.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1009 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brann: at least 11Actual: 13
Fredrikstad: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Brann: at least 6Actual: 3
Fredrikstad: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brann score2.33

Attack: Brann score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fredrikstad score0.91

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brann concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.9%2–110.7%1–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1009 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 66 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.