Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 17

Tromso–Brann

0–5

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alfheim, Tromso

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'BrannK. M. Ingason
22'BrannK. M. Ingason
37'BrannK. M. Ingason (assist: D. De Roeve)
50'BrannU. Mathisen
90'BrannM. Haaland

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tromso		Brann
18	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
507	Passes	473
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tromso 1.76 · Brann 1.20. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Tromso 18 · Brann 13; on target 4 and 7.

Unavailable players

Tromso

J. Grundtout · Foot Injury
V. Ekblomout · Groin Injury

Brann

E. Gudmundssonout · Knee Injury
M. Dyngelandout · Muscle Injury
N. Boakyeout · Knee Injury
N. Castroout · Achilles Tendon Injury
S. Magnussonout · Knee Injury
S. Opsahlout · Foot Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Sigurd Smehus Kringstad, Norway→

4.25

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.2%: “Tromso to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Tromso, 1.20 for Brann.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Tromso win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,006 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tromso to win50.2%

Draw25.2%

Brann to win24.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Tromso win or draw75.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.8%

X2 — draw or Brann win49.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

Tromso lead at half-time47.0%

Level at half-time37.8%

Brann lead at half-time15.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Tromso ahead or level84.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Brann ahead53.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1006 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tromso: at least 11Actual: 18
Brann: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Tromso: at least 4Actual: 6
Brann: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (60.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tromso score1.76

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brann score1.20

Attack: Brann score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.6%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1006 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 96 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.