Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 6

Aalesund–Kristiansund BK

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'Kristiansund BKW. Igor (assist: S. Kilen)
83'AalesundK. Lonebu (assist: I. Djantou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aalesund		Kristiansund BK
20	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
10	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
442	Passes	373
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aalesund 1.62 · Kristiansund BK 1.50. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Aalesund 20 · Kristiansund BK 11; on target 7 and 5.
Aalesund kept the ball more (55%).

Unavailable players

Aalesund

J. Seehusenout · injury
M. Kristensenout · injury
P. Ngongoout · Surgery

Kristiansund BK

D. Tufekcicout · Thigh Injury
H. Opsahlout · Knee Injury
N. Ødegårdout · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Ola Hobber Nilsen, Norway→

3.11

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Aalesund to win”. Second comes “Kristiansund BK to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Aalesund, 1.50 for Kristiansund BK.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,001 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aalesund to win39.8%

Draw25.7%

Kristiansund BK to win34.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aalesund lead at half-time46.2%

Level at half-time37.2%

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Aalesund ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Kristiansund BK ahead53.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1001 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aalesund: at least 11Actual: 14
Kristiansund BK: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Aalesund: at least 5Actual: 10
Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aalesund score1.62

Attack: Aalesund score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.50

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aalesund concede 45% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.