Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 6

Molde–Valerenga

5–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aker Stadion, Molde

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'MoldeF. Gulbrandsen (assist: E. Hestad)
45'ValerengaL. Haren (assist: M. Grundetjern)
51'MoldeE. Breivik (assist: S. Kabini)
55'MoldeF. Gulbrandsen (assist: S. Granaas)
57'MoldeE. Hestad
86'MoldeS. Granaas (assist: J. Abdulai)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Molde		Valerenga
18	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	7
15	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
559	Passes	411
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Molde 2.06 · Valerenga 1.00. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Molde 18 · Valerenga 10; on target 7 and 7.
Molde kept the ball more (58%).

Unavailable players

Molde

C. Oyvannout · injury
D. Dagaout · injury
F. Dahlout · Knee Injury
M. Kikkenborgout · Achilles Tendon Injury

Valerenga

M. Ofkirout · Knee Injury
O. Saeterout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Christian Moen, Norway→

3.13

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.1%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for Molde, 1.00 for Valerenga.
The highest double chance value is 84.0% (1X — Molde win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,000 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Molde to win62.1%

Draw21.9%

Valerenga to win16.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Molde win or draw84.0%

12 — any result other than a draw78.1%

X2 — draw or Valerenga win37.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Molde lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time39.2%

Valerenga lead at half-time21.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Molde ahead or level78.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Valerenga ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1000 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Molde: at least 11Actual: 6
Valerenga: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Molde: at least 6Actual: 2
Valerenga: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (60.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Molde score2.06

Attack: Molde score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valerenga's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valerenga score1.00

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Molde's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.8%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1000 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 94 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.