Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 5

Ham-Kam–KFUM Oslo

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Ham-KamH. Udahl (penalty)
39'KFUM OsloS. Sjokvist · red card
41'Ham-KamH. Udahl (penalty)
50'Ham-KamM. Niang (assist: V. Jonsson)
81'Ham-KamM. Niang (assist: L. Mettler)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		KFUM Oslo
13	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
544	Passes	491
473	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.33 · KFUM Oslo 1.39. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Ham-Kam 13 · KFUM Oslo 12; on target 6 and 2.

Unavailable players

Ham-Kam

L. Maresout · Groin Injury

KFUM Oslo

A. Aleesamiout · Groin Injury
B. Njieout · Lacking Match Fitness
B. Skaretout · injury
D. Hicksonout · injury
E. Odegaardout · Elbow Injury
M. Njieout · Lacking Match Fitness
M. Sinyanout · injury
T. Sorasout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Jorgen Haugen, Norway→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “KFUM Oslo to win”. Second comes “Ham-Kam to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Ham-Kam, 1.39 for KFUM Oslo.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 994 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win34.6%

Draw27.8%

KFUM Oslo to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ham-Kam win or draw62.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or KFUM Oslo win65.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Ham-Kam lead at half-time45.6%

Level at half-time36.9%

KFUM Oslo lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.1%

X2 — level or KFUM Oslo ahead54.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 994 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 10Actual: 15
KFUM Oslo: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 4
KFUM Oslo: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (60.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.33

Attack: Ham-Kam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KFUM Oslo concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KFUM Oslo score1.39

Attack: KFUM Oslo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.2%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 994 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.